Population Dynamics & LDA+ Consumer Base (2025–2125)
Explore how fertility, ageing, migration & policy shape long-horizon legal drinking age (LDA+) populations across major centres.
Meaning: Drag > 1.0× = births decline faster ⇒ smaller cohorts ageing into LDA after ~18–21 years. Drag < 1.0× = slower decline.
Meaning: Adds ±percentage points to annual growth (e.g., +0.20%). Inflows boost the LDA+ base immediately across adult ages; outflows reduce it.
Trend: Selected Regions
Lines show total population or LDA+ base (toggle). Tip: falling total with flat/rising LDA+ ⇒ rapid ageing; rising total with slower LDA+ ⇒ youthful base yet to reach LDA.
Ranking at 2025
World Map
Darker = larger market size for the selected metric in the chosen year. The fill updates smoothly as the year animates.
Assumptions, Drivers & Sources (expand)
Purpose. Directional scenario tool to illustrate how fertility-driven dynamics can reduce the LDA+ consumer base. Not a demographic projection engine.
Drivers. Fertility (birth pipeline), age structure (cohorts ageing into LDA), migration (net inflow/outflow of adults), mortality (older ages), policy (LDA 18/20/21).
Curve. g(t) = g0 · exp(−k · (t − 2025)) + migration_offset, with drag scaling k. Negative growth ⇒ shrinkage.
LDA+ share. Baseline share shifts with ageing; bounded 50–95%.
Sources. UN DESA World Population Prospects; World Bank Open Data; WHO/OECD/IARD/national statutes for LDA.